Published in Scoop
Two days out from Election day, the results of the final Newshub-Reid research poll* show that it could all come down to the decision of Winston Peters.
The final poll results show that in the battle at the top, National is leading on 45.8% (down 1.5%**), ahead of Labour on 37.3% (down 0.5%). In the minor party results, both the Greens (2.2% increase) and NZ First (1.1% increase) are sitting on 7.1%, The Opportunities Party (TOP) on 0.9%, Maori Party on 0.4% and ACT on 0.6%.
Taking this into account, National would have 56 seats and Labour, 45. With 62 seats needed to govern, neither Labour nor National could form a government on their own, according to the latest results. And even with governing partners factored in, both parties would still be short.
With NZ First tracking on 7.1%, this means that Winston Peters could be the kingmaker – with his nine seats he could effectively make either Bill English or Jacinda Ardern the Prime Minister of New Zealand.
When it comes to preferred Prime Minister, it would seem that Bill English (34.7%) has won the debate battle with a 1.6% increase over Jacinda Ardern (29.6%) who is showing a 1.1% decrease. Winston Peters meanwhile, is up on previous poll results at 7.1%.
Newshub political editor Patrick Gower said: “The election remains on a knife-edge. National are in the box-seat, but the Labour-Greens are not far away. It could all come down to Winston Peters.”
Newshub’s #Decision17 live election coverage will be available on Three and ThreeNOW from 7.00PM, 23rd September. RadioLIVE will also be covering the results throughout the evening with Mark Sainsbury joined in studio by Chris Trotter as well as a a line-up of commentators on rotation throughout the night.
Duncan Garner will be hosting the special, joined by Patrick Gower and The Nation host, Lisa Owen.
Garner said: “Wow, don’t look away! This heavyweight scrap is heading for a deciding round. In the blue corner, National is up on points. Labour’s staggering a bit after copping a bloody nose from National’s unrelenting attack on its water and income tax policy. It’s hurt Labour and sent them onto the ropes. Jacinda Ardern’s counter-punching may have come too late. National’s below the belt and far from truthful approach looks to have worked for now.’
‘But Labour has the Greens in their corner to even up the fight, it’s much closer now.’
‘So it’s now down to two things; the crucial public vote and 72 year-old veteran slugger, NZ First Leader, Winston Peters. The public appears to have given Peters the judge’s seat – from where he’s likely to pick the winner.’
Three’s #Decision17 Coverage: 7.00PM, 23rd September: Live Election coverage available on Three, ThreeNOW, online and on RadioLIVE 9.00 AM, 24th September: The Hui post-election night 60 minute special 10.00AM, 24th September: The Nation Live show post-election night 90 minute special
The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between September 13th – 20th, 2017. For full results please click here.