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OPINION: New Zealand is well used to Waitangi Day being politically charged. The dissent has been less intense of late compared with the disgraceful antics of some "activists" over the past two decades.
In 2004, National Party leader Don Brash was splattered with mud.
Six years earlier, Helen Clark was insulted and reduced to tears by protest matriarch Titewhai Harawira.
There have been jostling, arrests and ugly standoffs between police and protesters. For a time, Waitangi Day was more a time when the pain of separation was highlighted, rather than the celebration of nationhood which ought to have been the main focus. However, while recent gatherings at Waitangi have been calmer in recent years, this weekend there is every likelihood of further angst and disagreement.
There is nothing wrong with legitimate protest in order to highlight fresh wrongs and grievances. But Waitangi protesters who opt for extreme antics in order to be noticed do themselves and the cause far more harm than good.
One focus of dissent this year will be National's desire to remove the Treaty of Waitangi section in state owned enterprises legislation from a new law intended to cover the planned sale of minority stakes in state assets.
National's partner in government, the Maori Party, has hit the red button over this. It might even pull out of its confidence and supply deal over the issue.
Prime Minister John Key says he will happily take the debate to Waitangi this weekend. It is clear he will be walking into some sort of perfect storm and his management skills are certain to be severely tested.
He is already somewhat on the back-foot after claiming the disputed SOE clause, section 9 – which prevents the Crown from acting in a way inconsistent with the principles of the Treaty – had not been used since being introduced in 1986. Constitutional law expert and lawyer Mai Chen says it has been – at least three times. Mr Key claims he was misled by some unknown official during a briefing. Ahem. Very embarrassing, prime minister.
Meanwhile, also on the protesters' agenda will be revelations that up to 50 positions at Te Puni Kokiri, the Maori Affairs Ministry, might be lost in a budget-cut restructuring. For a Government that has seemed comparatively adept at stage-managing news, the appearance in the Waitangi Day leadup of two potentially inflammatory stories like this is surprising.
Perhaps the heat has been turned up by the Maori Party itself in an attempt to win back flagging support from Maori voters who have been unable to get over the party's support for the Key Government. Funding for the Maori Party's flagship Whanau Ora initiative is part of the reason for the funding cuts at Te Puni Kokiri, and it is difficult to know how well it was briefed by National on its schedule 9 intentions.
The two parties are in Government together, after all, even if Maori Party co-leaders Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia are ministers outside Cabinet.
Has National failed to appreciate how contentious removing schedule 9 might be? Earlier in the week, Mr Key was confident of finding a creative path through the minefield.
Does that suggest a behind-doors solution has already been offered and the Maori Party is just making noise in order to give the right appearances to its constituency?
It will be fascinating to see how events unfold on Monday. Let us hope, though, that unruly protest does not get in the way of "elegant" solutions.
- © Fairfax NZ News